A new report reveals that Britain’s decision to leave the European Union will bring about a significant fall in immigration – due to declining economic growth.
According to findings from a Social Market Foundation report, immigration to the UK could fall by as much as 58 per cent over the next 12 months, following June’s Brexit vote.
The organisation believe that the decrease will come about due to an expected decline in the UK’s economic performance rather than any new government policies looking to limit immigration.
“Two of our forecasts show that the Conservatives will meet their net migration target after all, even without any changes to immigration policy,” researcher Ben Richards said. “This is the result of a deteriorating economic outlook, including a sharp reduction in job vacancies and increased unemployment.”
The Social Market Foundation provided three forecasts of net migration levels between 2016 and 2020. The first, based on estimates of unemployment trends, forecasts a fall in net migration to 162,000 by 2018 and 131,000 by 2020, due to declining employment opportunities.
The second assumes the UK will leave the single market entirely, a move that would deliver a far more significant economic blow to the country. If this were to happen, and it’s extremely unlikely that it will, net migration would fall to 130,000 in 2018 and 99,000 in 2020.
The third forecast provided by the think tank is based on early post-referendum figures regarding job vacancies. Initial figures from The Financial Times showed that there was a very steep fall in job openings advertised online in the week immediately following the referendum.